This week I am privileged to be a part of the Experimental Warning Program at the Hazardous Weather Testbed in Norman, OK. Here, forecasters get a chance to test, in an operational style setting, some of the latest experimental warning products as a part of the GOES-R Proving Ground and Risk Reduction projects.
This GOES-R product, being evaluated by the NWS forecaster in the image above, is created by researchers at UAH, but transitioned to operations by the SPoRT team. The CI, which is a probabilistic tool, can alert forecasters to areas where convective initiation is likely or unlikely, in about a 0-2 hour window. During the evaluation today, the product has performed favorably over a rapidly developing cumulus field in north central Texas. The forecaster above noted large probabilities for convective initiation, which subsequently verified. Yesterday, results with the CI were more mixed, with CI performing generally well late in the afternoon and early evening with lower based convection, but suffering earlier in the day with high-based convection (generally over 700 mb).
The next image below showcases a feature of the Tracking Meteogram (TM) tool, developed collaboratively by researchers at NASA SPoRT and the NWS Meteorological Development Lab. Here, the tool also demonstrates success of the CI, which showed high probabilities for convective initiation before the cell showed corresponding rapid increases in reflectivity. Although the TM tool is still undergoing some changes and development, feedback here at the HWT has been instrumental in some necessary updates this week before the tool moves on to the Operations Proving Ground later this month.