Louisiana Flooding Captured by SPoRT-LIS

About a week ago, southern Louisiana began to experience heavy rainfall from a storm system that remained relatively stationary over the Gulf Coast.  The SPoRT-LIS, a real-time, high-resolution implementation of the the NASA Land Information System, captured trends in soil moisture that provide some insight into the evolution of this flooding, including hints at precursor conditions that may have led to the extreme nature of this event.

The 0-200 cm integrated relative soil moisture (RSM) fields have been used in the past to identify flood precursor conditions.  These fields give an indication of the total amount of water in the soil moisture column and provide information about how much additional precipitation can be accepted by the soil before all becomes runoff into nearby streams and rivers.  About 2 weeks ago (August 3 00Z; Fig. 1), Southern Louisiana showed soil moisture values in the 50% range, which are higher than other parts of the country, but likely about normal given the swampy nature of that region.  However, following a couple of precipitation events in that area on August 3, 7, 9, and 10), these integrated RSM fields bump up the 60-65% range (Fig. 2), which has become somewhat of an unofficial threshold for antecedent saturated soils that could lead to areal flooding events.  Based on various reports, it appears that the official start of the flooding event began on August 11.


Fig. 1: SPoRT-LIS valid at 00Z on 03 August 2016 showing 0-200 cm integrated relative soil moisture values around 50% over Southeastern Louisiana.


Fig. 2: SPoRT-LIS 0-200 cm integrated relative soil moisture values valid at 00Z on 10 August 2016 showing impact of multiple precipitation events since the 03 August figure above. Soil moisture values are elevated in southeastern Louisiana to values around 60-65%.



Fig. 3: SPoRT-LIS 0-200 cm integrated relative soil moisture values valid at 00Z on 14 August 2016 following the heaviest precipitation. Soil moisture values are above 90% in most areas, indicating major ongoing flooding across much of southern Louisiana.

Starting on 11 August, the 0-200cm integrated RSM begins to exhibit signs of flooding (starting to get into 70-80%; not shown).  By Aug. 12, most of SE LA is above 80% Integrated RSM with pockets above 90% (not shown).  By Aug. 14 (Fig. 3), nearly all of southern Louisiana is covered with soil moisture values above 85-90%, which indicates major ongoing flooding in this area.

These products are provided to select National Weather Service partner offices to aid in these flooding forecast challenges.  For more details on this product and to view additional days or hours, please visit the real-time SPoRT-LIS page.

Comparison of Quality Flags for NUCAPS Gridded Products

Gridded NUCAPS products developed as part of a multi-organization JPSS PG/RR project are currently being evaluated at the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Experimental Warning Program (EWP).  The project contains contributions by researchers from UW/CIMSS, CSU/CIRA/ UAF/GINA, and SPoRT.  NUCAPS soundings are retrieved temperature and moisture soundings from the Suomi-NPP CrIS and ATMS sounders.  The evaluation of NUCAPS at HWT is aimed at providing upper air temperature and moisture information in the pre-convection environment to better understand variables that are necessary for convection and severe weather.  The Gridded NUCAPS products allows for isobaric plan views of temperature and moisture that forecasters can use to gain confidence in the model output

Forecasters at the HWT-EWP posted some input on the use of the Gridded NUCAPS products.  On the Satellite Proving Ground at HWT Blog (http://www.goesrhwt.blogspot.com/2016/04/nucaps-planviews.html), a forecaster noted:

“[Gridded NUCAPS] would be beneficial in the forecasting environment as added temperature data would be available in between standard upper-air launches.  This could serve as a good proxy to help judge the strength of a capping inversion, while also possibly serving as an additional information source during winter wx events.

However, the forecaster also noted that the amount of missing data included in the product limits its utility.  Currently, the Gridded NUCAPS contains only the highest quality (i.e., “best”) data that comes from a combination of both microwave and infrared (top image below).  In this image, the dark blue pixels represent the data that are discarded due to QC issues.  However, this quality control can be strict at times and leave out “good” data that can still be useful to the forecasters.  When these “good” data are included, there are much more useful data (bottom image below) without any noticeable discontinuities or oddities in the data.

SPoRT plans to use the feedback from HWT-EWP participants to test pushing the inclusion of the “good” quality data to the Gridded NUCAPS product to provide forecasters with more data for their analysis.


853 hPa Gridded NUCAPS temperature product from 21 April 2016 at 1902 UTC including only the highest quality flags.  Dark blue pixels denote discarded data that results in data gaps.  Note that a lot of over-land observations are discarded.


853 hPa Gridded NUCAPS temperature product from 21 April 2016 at 1902 UTC including both “best” and “good” quality flags.  Dark blue pixels denote discarded data.  Missing pixels generally correspond to thick cloud features.


Snowfall Rate Provides Guidance for New Mexico Snow Event

Forecaster Jennifer Palucki from Albuquerque, New Mexico submitted a nice case study to our online evaluation form being used during the current 2016 NESDIS Snowfall Rate Evaluation.  Here are some of her discussion and impressions of using the product:

A very well defined band of snow developed along a frontal boundary extending from the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, toward Las Vegas, and continued southeastward toward Melrose. Initially the southeast part of the band was rain, but as temps dropped it changed to snow. At 0052z (552pm MST; see image below) the merged SFR likely did very well distinguishing where there was snow and no snow, however, in areas that there was snow, amounts were way underdone. At 545pm, approximately 4″ of snow had fallen in Sapello in the southern Sangre de Cristo Mtns. Snow likely started around 1 or 2pm, which is an average of about 1″/hr compared to the 0.3″/hr the SFR product was showing with an 18:1 ratio. Thus, the amounts via the SFR product were largely underdone. It was still snowing heavily according to the spotter at 545pm. At 645pm, approximately 1.5 inches of snow was reported in Las Vegas. The SFR product was showing around 0.1″/hr for this area.


NESDIS SFR Product at 0052 UTC on 03 February 2016 showing light snow over Las Vegas, NM.

Another pass at 0330z (830pm MST; see image below), the SFR product missed the southeastern extent of the snowfall, and again had amounts that were likely underdone. A report of 0.5 inches of snow in the last hour was reported at 841pm in Taos. The SFR product showed around 0.02 liquid equivalent, or around 0.3″/hr snowfall rate given 18:1 ratio (which should be close to the snow ratios in that area).


NESDIS SFR Product at 0330 UTC on 03 February 2016 showing some heavier snow over Taos, NM.

Really like using this product to gather intel on where it is snowing in areas without radar coverage. Do have some concerns about the amounts, especially in these scenarios where the heavier amounts are likely isolated. In this case, the band was very narrow, likely no more than 10 to 15 miles wide.

Life of Winter Storm Jonas as seen by the NESDIS Snowfall Rate Product

Winter Storm Jonas tracked across the eastern United States this past weekend dropping near-record amounts of snowfall in a track from West Virginia through southern New York.  Two things about this storm are particularly interesting:  1) the heavy amounts of snow that fell for long periods of time and 2) the relatively narrow swath of the heaviest snows.  Below is the 48-hour snow accumulations from the National Weather Service ending Sunday, January 24.  It is striking that New York City received on the order of 30 inches of snow, while areas less than 100 miles to the north received little if any snow.


48-hour snowfall totals ending Sunday, January 24, 2016 (from NWS Central Region).  Contours are every 3″ with the darkest reds indicating 30″ of snow.

Select Eastern Region WFOs are currently evaluating the NESDIS Snowfall Rate product, which uses passive microwave observations from 5 sensors, to observe total column snowfall rates.  Below is a series of images from this past weekend showing the SFR product displayed as a 10:1 solid/liquid conversion.  The darkest greens indicate snowfall rates at the top of the sensor detection range at approximately 2″/hr.  Depending on the actual solid/liquid ratio in individual areas, rates may have been higher.



NESDIS SFR Product showing the evolution of Winter Storm Jonas from late on Friday through early Sunday.  The darkest greens indicate solid snowfall rates of around 2″/hr.

In the images, the NESDIS SFR product shows very good agreement with the location and track of the heaviest snows (greens) compared to the heaviest totals in the ground reports.  Additionally, the SFR product does well in picking up the abrupt northern edge of the snowfall (especially across southern New York).

UPDATE:  The Sterling, VA WFO included mention of the SFR product in a forecast discussion to confirm snowfall rates that would cause white out conditions:


NESDIS Snowfall Product Captures Unfolding Winter Weather in the South

Beginning in the morning hours of 22 January 2016, rain began to change to snow across Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama.  The NESDIS Snowfall Rate, which is currently being evaluated by a handful of Weather Forecast Offices, has the ability to differentiate rain from snow.  This ability was particularly important for the large winter storm impacting much of the eastern half of the United States.  The animation below shows the 10:1 Solid SFR Product with METAR station observations indicating temperatures and precipitation.


The animation shows the evolution of snow across the area beginning with snow in Western Tennessee and Eastern Mississippi at around 1200 UTC (6:00a local time).  Also of note at that same time is that the SFR Product indicates relatively heavy snow (~1.5 in./hr. solid snow) directly over the Nashville area; however, the METAR site at the airport is still reporting rain.  In the following hour (1300 UTC; not shown in the loop here because there was no SFR product valid near 1300 UTC) Nashville was reporting snow.  Thus, the SFR product was seeing in-cloud snow in that area that began to reach the ground within an hour of the observation.  This is one way forecasters can use the product to view in-cloud snow to determine the potential for snow to reach the ground.

Later in the period, a similar set up appears in the Huntsville area at the Madison County Executive Airport (KMDQ).  The 1853 UTC SFR product shows light snow over Madison County, but the 1900 UTC METAR was not yet reporting any snow.  However, the 2000 UTC METAR showed snow beginning to fall across the Huntsville area.  The change over to snow falling across Western Madison county into Central Madison county was between 1830 and 1900 UTC, verified as I drove home from work.

The NESDIS SFR product will continue to be evaluated as blizzard conditions begin to set up along parts of the East Coast.

Suomi-NPP ATMS Captures Historic Northeast Blizzard

SPoRT and NESDIS are currently collaborating on an assessment of a snowfall rate (SFR) product that includes data from the Suomi-NPP Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) instrument.  ATMS provides more channels, better resolution, and a wider swath than previous operational microwave sounders, like the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS).  The SFR product uses information in microwave channels to estimate liquid-equivalent snowfall rates that forecasters can use for pinpointing the locations of the heaviest snowfall during winter weather events.  These observations are being provided in near-real-time (less than 30 minutes latency) through access to data from direct broadcast provided by the University of Wisconsin/CIMSS.

The northeast is currently experiencing a historic blizzard with areas of New England recording more than a foot of snow with more snow to come later today.  Below is an example of the output from the ATMS SFR product depicting heavy snow over most of New England.  This image indicates that the heaviest snowfall at this time was centered over southeastern Connecticut with rates anywhere from 1-1.5 inches of solid snow per hour.

ATMS SFR depicting the 2015 Blizzard at 0650 UTC (around 2:00 A.M. local time) on 27 January 2015.

ATMS SFR depicting the 2015 Blizzard at 0650 UTC (around 2:00 A.M. local time) on 27 January 2015.

Coupled with other microwave sensors on board other NOAA and European satellites, up to 10 swaths of observations are available to provide observations of where the heaviest snowfall is falling and allows forecasters to track these features when used in conjunction with GOES imagery and radar.

Denver Area Snowfall Event Feedback

David Barjenbruch, a forecaster at the Denver/Boulder WFO working with SPoRT and NESDIS to evaluate the NESDIS Snowfall Rate product this winter, provided a nice case study for consideration.  He writes:

We received more snow across the Front Range of Colorado on Wednesday, January 21, and just wanted to attach a few comparisons of SFR, radar, obs, and METARS.  At 17Z, the SFR unfortunately missed the moderate snow across the Denver metro area (KDEN…1mm water in last hour…and KBJC 1/2 mile visibility in moderate snow, and 1/4 mile at KAPA…0.8mm water in last hour). Area of main concern is highlighted in pink, while at the same time it also overestimated snow toward the east toward ITR in eastern Colorado.

Comparison between radar and SFR product at 17Z on 21 Jan 2015

Comparison between radar (left) and SFR Product (right) at 17Z on 21 Jan 2015.  Circled area denotes region where SFR missed accumulating precipitation in the Front Range.  SFR overestimates snow in eastern CO.


Comparison between radar and SFR at 20Z on 21 Jan 2015.

Comparison between radar (left) and SFR Product (right) at 20Z on 21 Jan 2015.  SFR captures some of the snow in southern CO but continues to overestimate snowfall in parts of eastern CO.

After a fairly widespread precipitation event Wednesday morning, the snow turned more convective in the afternoon.  Checking the 2320Z radar, we had an intense convective cell which moved southwest across the western sections of the Denver metro area (highlighted in pink again).  This particular cluster of convection produced anywhere from 1.5 to 3″ of snow (2-5.5mm water) in an hour or less.

Comparison between radar and SFR Product at 2320Z on 21 Jan 2015.

Comparison between radar and SFR Product at 2320Z on 21 Jan 2015.  Circled area denotes convective snowfall that was not captured by the SFR.