The blended TPW product and associated anomaly increase the forecaster’s awareness for potential flooding rains. One such event occurred from April 6-8, 2008, affecting the Miami, FL WFO. Pablo Santos and staff forecasters had been tracking an area of moisture developing in the GOMEX and Caribbean. The TPW anomaly product for early on April 6 shows abnormally high values mostly in mid-latitudes with tropical areas closer to normal for this time of year. However, a small area to the west of FL indicated TPW anomalies of 200% with values over 2 inches for TPW itself. A frontal boundary associated with a mid-latitude cyclone was pushing south into the GOMEX and FL, and the upper level analysis showed weak divergence aloft over FL. This image of abnormally high moisture in the blended TPW provided additional lead time to forecasters that the rain event about to occur in the next 48 hours had a good potential of resulting in flooding. Over the course of the next 2 days the forcing from the boundary and the large TPW resulted in 5-10 inches of total precipitation over a large area due to training of cells.
You must be logged in to post a comment.